Employment Data

US payrolls

2026-10-02 08:30:52

U.S. September payrolls preview points to slower hiring as October rate hike odds fall

The United States is set to release its September nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, with a Reuters survey pointing to a gain of 90,000 jobs. That would mark a clear slowdown from August’s 162,000 increase, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1% for a third straight month. After the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years in September, the report is being watched as a key test of whether the labor market is still showing resilience and whether another hike in October remains necessary. Markets are not focused only on the headline payroll number. Economists are also watching whether wage growth picks up again and whether August’s stronger-than-expected payroll gain could be revised lower, with some arguing that seasonal adjustment factors may have affected the prior reading. At the same time, market pricing for another Fed hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting has dropped sharply to about 28% as of Thursday, down from nearly 69% a week earlier.

80

US nonfarm pa

2026-09-04 16:33:22

US August Nonfarm Payrolls Surge to 162K vs 56K Expected

US nonfarm payrolls for August came in at 162K, well above the 56K consensus estimate.

760

US nonfarm pa

2026-09-04 12:30:00

U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls Add 162,000; Unemployment Rate Holds at 4.1%

The U.S. added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, far exceeding the 56,000 expected. The prior month's figure was revised sharply upward from -23,000 to 21,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. Data from Jinshi Data, as reported by PANews on September 4.

340

Polymarket

2026-09-03 11:57:43

Fed Rate Hike Probability on Polymarket Drops to 49%, Down 10% in 24 Hours

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September on Polymarket has fallen to 49%, down 10% in 24 hours. The drop follows weaker-than-expected ADP employment data for August, which showed an increase of only 38,000 jobs. Markets now await the August nonfarm payrolls report due Sept 4, the last full employment data before the Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting.

860

Policy and Re

2026-08-26 16:28:32

U.S. Labor Department teams up with Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI on AI workforce data hub

The U.S. Department of Labor is working with Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI to build an employment data platform called AI Workforce Hub, according to Techub, citing Crypto Briefing. The platform is designed to collect and analyze AI-related job data and use that information to support future labor policy and education planning. The stated goal is to improve workforce readiness as the economy becomes more shaped by AI. The report also said the platform is expected to have a significant effect on workforce policy and education programs, while providing data support for how work may evolve in the future.

900

ARK Invest

2026-08-09 13:45:43

ARK Invest Says US Economy Not as Gloomy as Jobs Data Suggest

ARK Invest has responded to the latest U.S. employment data, arguing that the headline weakness masks a more resilient economic picture. The firm, led by Cathie Wood, said the overall situation is not as pessimistic as the surface numbers suggest. Wood specifically pointed to the U.S. federal deficit, which currently stands at 5.6% of GDP. She noted that if productivity and technology adoption continue to improve, the deficit-to-GDP ratio could approach 5% by the end of the year. This conditional outlook ties fiscal health to sustained gains in productivity and tech adoption. The comments come after the release of fresh employment numbers that appeared soft on the surface. ARK's stance is that these figures should not be interpreted as a sign of broad economic weakness. Instead, the firm highlights underlying dynamics that could support a gradual improvement. Wood's remarks provide context for the deficit figure, framing it as potentially moving in a favorable direction if certain conditions hold. The current ratio of 5.6% is a key reference point in her assessment. The possibility of reaching near 5% by year-end depends on continued progress in productivity and the adoption of new technologies. While the employment data may raise concerns, ARK Invest chooses to focus on the bigger picture, which it views as less dire than it appears.

1770

Policy Regula

2026-08-02 13:29:44

U.S. payroll week and a slate of China data are due next week

A busy macro calendar is set for next week, according to Jin10, with the U.S. nonfarm payroll week and several China data releases on deck. The schedule includes China’s July foreign exchange reserves, CPI and trade balance, along with a run of U.S. indicators covering manufacturing, trade and labor conditions. On Monday, markets will watch China’s July manufacturing PMI and the U.S. July ISM manufacturing PMI. Tuesday brings the U.S. June trade balance and JOLTs job openings. Wednesday will see the release of U.S. ADP employment figures and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, the focus shifts to the U.S. July unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. The week will close on Friday with speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials. The lineup puts labor and activity data from both China and the United States at the center of attention.

1890

Bitcoin

2026-07-22 12:35:13

Warsh Fed Chair Expectations and Massive Jobs Revisions Stir Bitcoin Volatility

Large downward revisions to US employment data have revived rate-cut expectations and sharpened focus on Kevin Warsh’s policy stance, adding fresh macro uncertainty to Bitcoin and other risk assets.

1300